Chinese media ZAKER published an article on September 30 titled "China's rare earths flow to Japan again! A 90% surge in August, the path to decoupling from China is still elusive."

In August of this year, China's exports of rare earth magnets to Japan reached 212 tons, an increase of 90.3% compared to the previous month. The article raised the question, "China's export restrictions on dual-use items have not been lifted, and it's hard to say that the state of tension has fundamentally changed. Despite ongoing regulations, why did export volumes suddenly almost double?" It then stated, "The answer is hidden in several other figures."

It then asserted, "While August may seem like a significant increase, compared to the same month last year (256 tons), it is still a decrease of 17.1%. It is merely a sharp rebound from the low level in July this year, and it is far from returning to past supply levels. Although the rate of decrease narrowed in August, it is still a 'decrease,' not an 'increase.'"

It also stated, "From February to July, China's exports of tungsten carbide to Japan were zero for six consecutive months, but suddenly recovered to 43 tons in August. On the other hand, tungsten powder remains at zero, with no exports for seven consecutive months from February to August." It explained, "China is not currently imposing a complete embargo on all civilian goods to Japan. The Ministry of Commerce has announced an export control list, indicating that stricter scrutiny is being applied to companies and organizations on the list." It concluded, "The confirmation of 212 tons of exports in August does not prove that regulations have been eased."

The article emphasized that China's regulations are still effective, stating, "For Japanese companies, not only the complete halt of rare earth supply but also uncertainties such as 'when the supply will arrive' and 'different screening statuses for some products' make future production plans difficult." It also asserted, "Japan has been working to secure rare earth supply sources other than China, but processes such as separation and refining are necessary, not just mining. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), China's global share in 2024 reached approximately 60% for rare earth mine production, 91% for refining, and 94% for sintered permanent magnets. While Japan's diversification is progressing, 'reducing dependence' and 'departing from the traditional supply chain' are different things."

Furthermore, it reiterated, "The 90.3% increase in rare earth exports to Japan in August compared to the previous month is not a figure indicating that Japan's problems have been solved. While progress is beginning to be seen in the alternative measures Japan is pursuing, these are not yet sufficient to rebuild an industrial chain (led by China) that has taken decades to form." It concluded, "What is truly important for China is not the monthly increase or decrease of several tens of tons, but a series of industrial capabilities that other countries will find difficult to replicate for the time being, and this 'wall' is precisely what Japan must overcome." (Translation/Editing: Kitada)