Taiwanese media China Times News Network reported on the 29th, publishing an article titled 'Will rare earths trigger a new US-China trade war? Expert: The US still needs to wait several years.'

The article stated that regarding the 2-month extension of the 'truce' from the US-China tariff negotiations, while the U.S. is accelerating the establishment of a self-sufficient system for rare earths and critical minerals, voices are emerging pointing to the possibility of a new US-China trade war starting as early as next year.

On the other hand, it was also reported that Xu Zun-tzu (徐遵慈), Director of the Southeast Asia Research Center at the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research in Taiwan, expressed the view that 'the U.S.'s construction of an alternative rare earth supply chain is still making limited progress, and it will take several years to break away from dependence on China.'

According to the article, Xu attended a symposium on U.S.-China-Taiwan relations held by the Center for International Relations at National Chengchi University on the 29th. She pointed out that 'over the past year, the U.S. has actively promoted cooperation on critical minerals with Southeast Asian countries such as Malaysia and the Philippines, signing memorandums of cooperation and indicating intentions for joint mining and development. However, there is still a long way to go until these efforts lead to a supply capacity on a scale that can support U.S. demand.'

Regarding China's export restrictions (on rare earths, etc.) against the U.S. and Japan, she cited information obtained from U.S. and Japanese stakeholders, stating that 'companies in both countries are still able to obtain related products from China. However, obtaining permits and case-by-case review are required. The biggest problem at present is not that supply has completely ceased, but rather the uncertainty in the supply process.'

She expressed the view that it is 'highly doubtful' whether the U.S. is adequately prepared in terms of rare earth supply, and stated that 'China has not completely cut off supply; it is supplying under certain conditions and through individual reviews. Therefore, it can also be said that the U.S. has several years to develop its procurement capabilities for rare earths and critical minerals.'

Regarding the impact on Taiwan, she explained that '(Taiwan) is not in a position to directly use rare earths; it procures and processes much of its raw materials from the U.S., Europe, Japan, and other countries, and then incorporates them into its industrial chain.' She stated, 'Therefore, the impact of China's rare earth regulations could indirectly affect Taiwan not only through fluctuations in raw material prices, but also through markets in third countries such as Japan.'