On September 30, 2026, Chinese media Global Times published a commentary by Professor Lian Degui, Director of the Center for Japanese Studies at Shanghai International Studies University, analyzing the background of Japan's declining export competitiveness.

In his commentary, Lian cited data from Japan's Ministry of Finance, stating that Japan's export value from January to June this year remained at 386.1 billion dollars (approximately 60.7 trillion yen). While some Japanese media had expected the boom in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure investment and the weak yen to strongly drive Japanese companies' exports, Lian pointed out that in reality, the disparity in export volume with neighboring countries and regions is rapidly expanding.

In contrast, South Korea's exports from January to June this year increased by nearly 50% year-on-year to 496.3 billion dollars (approximately 78.1 trillion yen). As for China, in June alone, exports reached 412.3 billion dollars (approximately 64.9 trillion yen), a 27% increase year-on-year, and from January to June, Guangdong Province alone accounted for 464.56 billion dollars (approximately 73.1 trillion yen).

Furthermore, in a comparative analysis, he argued that Japan ranks last among the core trading nations in East Asia, lagging significantly in terms of growth vitality and industrial competitiveness. He predicted that, barring any major disruptions, this year will be the year when economies such as South Korea overtake Japan in total annual exports.

Lian analyzed that although the weak yen partially boosted exports and market share for Japanese companies, structural weaknesses such as a lack of resources and dependence on imported energy and food offset the profits, resulting in a trade deficit of approximately 17 billion dollars (approximately 2.67 trillion yen) from January to June. The automotive industry, a pillar industry, was hit by US tariffs and the situation in the Middle East, with export growth remaining at 1% year-on-year, and exports to the Middle East in particular seeing a significant decrease of 45.8% year-on-year.

Furthermore, passive handling of energy imports is pressuring trade profits. Due to the turmoil in the Middle East, crude oil purchases from the United States in June surged tenfold year-on-year to 2.1 billion dollars (approximately 330 billion yen). Moreover, despite a roughly 40% decrease in import volume from the Middle East, expenditures increased by approximately 7% due to soaring crude oil prices and transportation costs.

Lian concluded that Japan, a nation founded on "trade," is facing challenges such as geopolitical risks, currency fluctuations, and supply chain restructuring. He criticized the Japanese government's unilateral, dependent, and confrontational diplomatic choices, stating that they are negatively impacting trade development. He warned that if these issues are not rectified promptly, the decline in Japan's trade competitiveness will become an irreversible trend. (Edited and translated by Kawajiri)