This summer, Tokyo was relatively comfortable, with only 3 days of scorching heat and 6 tropical nights in August (compared to 18 and 24 days last year, respectively). However, across Japan and the world, abnormal weather and disasters frequently occurred, making us keenly aware of the progress of global warming. While further strengthening measures to curb greenhouse gas emissions, such as transitioning to renewable energy, is required, the trends in Japan and the world seem to be moving in the opposite direction. Will the world face climate collapse as it is?

Shocking Glacier Collapse

From July to August, heavy rain damage occurred in Chiba Prefecture, Hokuriku region, Aomori Prefecture, and other parts of Japan. In contrast to Tokyo, western Japan experienced continued intense heat, with Kyushu recording its first-ever day with a maximum temperature of over 40 degrees Celsius. Turning our attention to the world, temperatures rose in various parts of Europe. According to AFP and other reports, the number of deaths believed to be caused by heatwaves exceeded 10,000 in Germany and 7,300 in France. On a personal note, when I was stationed in Switzerland and Germany for four years around 1990, my home and car had heating but no air conditioning, and there was hardly any inconvenience. That was about 35 years ago, but Europe's climate seems to have changed dramatically.

Even this is a serious situation, but the most shocking event this summer was the glacier collapse that occurred in the Himalayas, in the Nepal-China border region, in late August. Videos were released showing debris flows swallowing buildings and cars one after another, leaving the world breathless. In particular, the video of the debris flow striking a border checkpoint in China's Tibet Autonomous Region and instantly engulfing an 8-story building was something I had never seen before, surpassing the impact of the tsunami footage from the Great East Japan Earthquake. The Chinese side does not yet seem to have announced the final number of casualties, but it is easy to imagine that a considerable number of deaths and missing persons occurred just by watching that video. Since glacier collapse is also a matter of global concern, I would like to request timely and appropriate information disclosure.

According to Reuters, a group of researchers suggested that the main cause of this incident was the rapid increase in temperatures in the Himalayan region, which thinned the glaciers and accelerated the melting of ice and permafrost deep within the mountain bedrock. Glaciers exist not only in the Himalayas but also in various parts of the world, including Antarctica, the Arctic, Greenland, and the European Alps. If they collapse or shrink in the future, they could cause similar disasters and affect the climate balance. Most scientists conclude that global warming is primarily caused by increased carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and strengthening climate change countermeasures, centered on transitioning to renewable energy, is truly urgent.

Are Global Trends Moving in the Opposite Direction?

However, global trends seem to be moving in the opposite direction. A prime example is the actions of the Trump administration in the United States, the world's second-largest CO2 emitter. According to a BBC report, the administration recently announced the repeal of regulations aimed at curbing greenhouse gas emissions from thermal power plants. Under President Trump, who openly declares that "climate warming is the greatest hoax in history," this is likely a natural policy shift. While environmental groups may file injunction lawsuits and many private companies and state governments still maintain their stance on curbing CO2 emissions, so US emissions are unlikely to increase significantly immediately, the US cannot be expected to play a role like the Biden administration, which led climate change countermeasures. The American national character, where 40% of people believe "humans were created by God" for religious reasons, supports the Trump administration's anti-scientific stance.

What about China, the world's largest CO2 emitter? Last year, President Xi Jinping announced measures that included a 7-10% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035. While this could be seen as a positive stance while Trump turns his back on climate change, for a country that emits a quarter of the world's CO2, it is insufficient, and there is no sense of spirit to lead global warming countermeasures at the forefront of the international community.

So, what about Japan? Although Japanese people should have felt the adverse effects of climate change firsthand in recent years due to intense heat and heavy rains, a survey suggests that their awareness has actually regressed. According to a slightly older survey released last year by the public opinion research firm Ipsos (headquartered in Paris), only 40% of Japanese agreed with the statement, "If individuals do not take action to address climate change now, they will betray the expectations of future generations," placing Japan last among the 32 countries surveyed. Furthermore, compared to the 2021 survey, the percentage of people who agreed decreased by 19%, which was also the largest decrease. In fact, climate change issues were hardly discussed in last year's Liberal Democratic Party presidential election or this February's House of Representatives election. Have politicians and the public given up, thinking that global warming is inevitable?

"I Want Japan to Lead Other Countries"

There are understandable reasons why Japanese people might think this way. According to data, Japan's CO2 emissions in 2025 will be 979 million tons, less than one-tenth of China's (11.22 billion tons) and only 20% of the US's (4.755 billion tons). No matter how much Japan tries, if the two major powers don't reduce their emissions, there's nothing that can be done; we just have to accept the reality of global warming and adapt.

In contrast, some researchers advocate for "Japan to lead other countries" in climate change countermeasures. One such researcher is Professor Yoshihiro Tachibana of Mie University. Professor Tachibana points out that Japan is in an environment exceptionally susceptible to global warming's effects, stating that (1) Japan is increasingly falling south of the meandering westerlies, making intense heat more likely; (2) the world's hottest seawater near New Guinea reaches Japan via the Kuroshio Current; and (3) the atmosphere heated over the world's largest Eurasian continent is carried to Japan, at the continent's eastern edge, by the westerlies. He warns that Japan will become the most uninhabitable country in the world if this continues, and calls for action, saying, "Just a little movement from everyone will create a big trend... Let's restore Japan's beautiful four seasons" (refer to "Chuo Koron," September issue).

In August this year, an organization comprised of Japanese weather forecasters announced the "Weather Forecast for 2050 - Revised Edition." According to it, if CO2 emissions continue at the current pace, the world's average temperature will rise by 2 degrees compared to pre-industrial levels in 24 years. In summer, maximum temperatures in Gunma Prefecture and other areas will rise to 43 degrees Celsius, and self-restraint orders for going out will be issued between 11:00 and 15:00. Super typhoons with a minimum atmospheric pressure of 880 hectopascals will strike the archipelago. Domestically, there are concerns about poor rice growth due to heatwaves and water shortages, and the world's granaries will also be hit by drought, making a food crisis evident. This is a state that should be called climate collapse, as warned by UN Secretary-General Guterres. To avoid such a situation, we should deeply ponder Professor Tachibana's earnest appeal.

■筆者プロフィール：長田浩一

1979年時事通信社入社。チューリヒ、フランクフルト特派員、経済部長などを歴任。現在は文章を寄稿したり、地元自治体の市民大学で講師を務めたりの毎日。趣味はサッカー観戦、60歳で始めたジャズピアノ。中国との縁は深くはないが、初めて足を踏み入れた外国の地は北京空港でした。