Chinese media outlet Caixin Global reported on the 23rd that more than a year has passed since the lifting of the ban on black mass imports, but the battery recycling industry is still in a state of 'raw material shortage.'

According to the article, black mass is a black powder containing valuable metals such as lithium, nickel, and cobalt obtained after crushing and separating used lithium-ion batteries, and it serves as a core raw material in the battery recycling industry. One year has passed since China lifted the ban on black mass imports on August 1, 2025. However, judging from the data of companies and institutions, the problem of raw material shortage in the battery recycling industry has not been truly resolved over the past year.

The article stated that "what is lacking in China's battery recycling sector is not processing capacity but raw materials." It also reported that according to Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), the global annual processing capacity for black mass in 2026 is approximately 3.42 million tons, with China accounting for about 70% of the total, and China accounting for over 80% of the hydrometallurgical processing capacity. Furthermore, according to High-Tech Industry Research (GGII), it was reported that as a result of numerous projects concentrating and commencing production, the existing battery recycling processing capacity clearly exceeds the actual supply of spent batteries.

According to the article, as the disposal of New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) such as Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) increases in China, the discharge volume of used batteries is also rising, but the majority of them are flowing into informal channels. The article cited the 2024 edition of the "White Paper on the Development of China's Lithium-ion Battery Recycling, Disassembly, and Secondary Utilization Industry," stating that "while the nominal processing capacity for battery recycling reaches 3.8 million tons, the actual collection volume by whitelisted companies that meet certain technical and environmental standards remains at 623,000 tons, with equipment utilization rates below 18%. Meanwhile, approximately 75% of discarded batteries are flowing to non-whitelisted operators, such as informal channels and small workshops."

According to the article, one means to fill the domestic raw material shortage is the import of black mass. On January 1, 2026, China lowered the import tariff on black mass from the most-favored-nation rate of 6.5% to a provisional rate of 3.0%. However, in reality, the effect of black mass imports is limited. China's black mass import volume was 804 tons in October 2025 and 814 tons in November, and it is expected to remain around 10,000 tons for the entire year. According to GGII, China's black mass processing volume in 2025 was 650,000 tons, and based on this figure, the import volume would only account for a mere 1.5% of the domestic processing volume. According to experts, the reason for the lack of progress in black mass imports is that what circulates overseas are basically whole discarded used batteries, and due to insufficient pre-treatment technologies such as separation and disassembly at overseas battery recycling companies, black mass often gets mixed with electrolyte, copper, aluminum, plastics, etc., making it unable to meet China Customs' import standards.

The article pointed out that "a larger uncertainty lies in changes in overseas policies. Two major supply regions are successively trying to close their export doors." It mentioned that the European Commission added black mass to its hazardous waste list in March 2025 and banned its export to non-Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member countries, stating that "this regulation will be enforced from November 9, 2026, and China is not included among the countries eligible for export permits." It also reported that the United States is implementing export restrictions on black mass for one year starting August 27, 2026, prioritizing the supply of targeted materials to domestic buyers, and requiring individual exemption permits for exports. Meanwhile, it introduced that "there are also objections within the European Union (EU) to the European Commission's ban," with European recycling industry associations such as Recycling Europe and the global recycling organization BIR pointing out that recycled materials are structurally oversupplied in Europe, and hasty export restrictions could push down local waste prices, potentially leading to a decrease in recycling rates.

The article pointed out that "although China's battery recycling industry accounts for 70% of the world's total processing capacity, the shortage of raw material supply is hindering the expansion of the industry." As for experts' remarks, "Going forward, as the period when large quantities of used batteries will actually be generated approaches, automobile manufacturers and battery manufacturers will be required to reliably fulfill their responsibility for collecting them. At the same time, as the Provisional Measures for Management and the battery ID system continue to be implemented, low-quality production capacities in recycling and reuse will be eliminated, and the situation may improve," it was reported.