Chinese media outlet Observer Network reported on the 20th, publishing an article titled, "Can 'de-Sinicization' be sustained? Japan degrades into a cheap travel destination."

According to preliminary figures released by the Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO) on the 19th, the number of foreign visitors to Japan in July was 3,442,100, a 0.1% increase from the same month last year. Among them, tourists from China decreased by 56.1% to 428,200, marking the eighth consecutive month of year-on-year decline. In contrast, visitors from South Korea increased by 31.9% to 894,700, Taiwan by 26.4% to 763,800, the United States by 3.3% to 286,200, and Hong Kong by 54.8% to 272,000, with significant increases from other Asian countries and regions in particular.

However, the Observer Network article claims that "the assertions by the Japanese government and private sector that 'the tourism industry can be maintained even without China' are increasingly losing their persuasiveness." It emphasized, "Following a 2.0% year-on-year decrease in foreign visitors to Japan in the first half of this year, the number of foreign visitors from January to July decreased by 1.7%. If this trend continues, the total number of foreign visitors for the full year 2026 could fall below the previous year, marking the first decline in five years."

It further pointed out, "According to estimates by Nomura Research Institute, if the slump in Chinese tourists continues, Japan could suffer losses of 1.79 trillion to 2.20 trillion yen for the full year 2026, pushing down GDP growth by approximately 0.36 percentage points. This calculation suggests that roughly 40% of the annual economic growth would be nearly wiped out." It then questioned, "Amidst this, some Japanese scholars and media outlets remain optimistic, asserting that tourists from Europe, the US, and South Korea are filling the void, but is that really the case?"

The article argued, "Superficially, the increase in visitors from Europe, the US, and South Korea partially offsets the impact of the decrease in Chinese tourists. However, it cannot be simply calculated that way." Firstly, it asserted, "If alternative markets were truly achieving 'perfect compensation,' the total number of foreign visitors would not be continuously decreasing to this extent," strongly claiming, "The reality is that the growth in markets other than China is nowhere near catching up with the speed at which Chinese tourists are declining."

Secondly, it argued, "The core of the problem is not 'whether people came,' but 'whether they spent money.'" It stated, "According to the May international balance of payments announced by the Ministry of Finance on July 8, due to the sharp decline in foreign visitors, Japan's service balance reversed from a surplus of 130.9 billion yen in May 2025 to a deficit of 10.3 billion yen in May 2026. This is an undeniable crack that has emerged in Japan's service trade balance."

Although the article does not mention it, looking at the total travel consumption by foreign visitors to Japan, January-March 2026 saw 2.3373 trillion yen, a 2.5% increase year-on-year. April-June saw 2.5096 trillion yen, a 0.2% increase, indicating an increase despite a significant decrease in Chinese tourists.

Thirdly, it stated, "Japan's policies are also imposing a burden in the opposite direction," pointing to increases in visa application fees for foreign visitors, a rise in accommodation taxes in places like Kyoto, and the introduction of 'differentiated treatment' such as 'dual pricing' in some tourist destinations. It added, "Furthermore, the worsening situation in the Middle East has led to rising fuel surcharges, reducing the willingness of visitors from distant regions to come to Japan, and there are considerable obstacles to the idea of 'compensating for Chinese visitors with Western visitors.'"

The article conveyed the view of Chen Yang, a visiting researcher at Liaoning University's Center for Japanese Studies, who said, "In the short term, Japan may be able to somewhat fill the deficit in visitor numbers from China with other markets. However, the scale, consumption level, and ripple effects on the industrial chain brought by Chinese tourists cannot be replicated at the same level by other markets. The realistic basis for Japan to reduce its long-term dependence on the Chinese market is becoming increasingly weak."

It also argued, "Chinese tourists were once a crucial cornerstone promoting the recovery of regional tourism in Japan. Simply trying to offset the number of 'decreased visitors from China' with figures like 'increased visitors from South Korea' or 'increased visitors from Europe and the US' offers limited insight. This is because there are significant differences across markets in terms of length of stay, means of transport, shopping preferences, destinations, and per capita expenditure. In other words, while the deficit in tourist numbers can be partially compensated by increases from multiple markets, it is difficult to replace the consumption structure and contributions to the industrial chain on the same scale."

Furthermore, it mentioned, "While the weak yen should ideally be a tailwind and an opportunity for inbound tourism, for tourists holding dollars or euros, it strongly implies 'accessing luxury experiences at lower prices,' and does not necessarily mean an increase in the competitiveness of Japan's tourism industry itself." It strongly asserted, "With the continued decline of tourists from the largest single high-consumption market (China), and alternative markets struggling to play an equivalent role in terms of scale, per capita consumption, and repeat visitors, the claim that 'there is no need to depend on China' is merely self-consolation to avoid confronting losses."

The article highlighted and introduced voices from Japanese netizens, such as 'Japan is becoming a globally cheap travel destination,' 'Chinese tourists have mostly disappeared from the streets, but honestly, white people's manners are worse,' and 'Japanese media have always sought out problems with Chinese tourists while turning a blind eye to nuisances caused by tourists from other countries. Because of this, we have reached incorrect conclusions,' deliberately emphasizing the 'presence of Chinese tourists.' (Translation and editing by Kitada)