French media RFI recently published an article by Professor Emmanuel Combe of Pantheon-Sorbonne University, which appeared in the French newspaper "Les Echos," arguing that China might eventually come to thank U.S. President Trump for his ban on exports of cutting-edge products to China. Professor Combe focused on the fact that China is beginning to approach world-class standards in semiconductor lithography technology.

Professor Combe pointed out that the stock price of ASML, Europe's largest cutting-edge technology company headquartered in the Netherlands and a global leader in semiconductor equipment, recently fell. The trigger was a U.S. media report that a Chinese state-owned enterprise would soon begin mass production of DUV (deep ultraviolet) lithography machines. DUV lithography machines are one of ASML's core products. ASML almost monopolizes the EUV (extreme ultraviolet) lithography machine market, which is essential for advanced semiconductor manufacturing, and also holds over 80% share in the DUV lithography machine market used for manufacturing quasi-advanced semiconductors.

ASML's monopolistic position is the result of over 30 years of research and development, supported by a unique European supply chain, including the provision of precision optical systems and high-end lasers by Germany's Zeiss. Because the technological barriers are extremely high, the emergence of new competitors has been considered almost impossible. The Dutch government was then forced to ban the export of EUV lithography machines and advanced DUV lithography machines to China due to pressure from the United States.

Such export restrictions on cutting-edge products have the effect of preventing the target country from acquiring the latest equipment and losing opportunities for technology transfer and experience accumulation. The Soviet Union during the Cold War is a typical example. Due to the embargo by the Coordinating Committee for Multilateral Export Controls (COCOM), the Soviet Union could not import advanced Western computers and was unable to catch up with the technological lag until the very end.

However, sometimes the situation turns completely in the opposite direction. China can no longer import EUV lithography machines, but by repeatedly performing multiple exposures with DUV lithography machines, it can manufacture advanced semiconductors, albeit with reduced yield. With the path to imports cut off, China is left with no choice but to manufacture cutting-edge lithography machines domestically.

The export ban to China essentially functions as 'protection of domestic industries that China benefits from.' For newly entering Chinese companies, foreign competitors can now no longer enter the huge Chinese domestic market. In the past, when ASML could freely export to the Chinese market, it was difficult for Chinese companies to find customers even if they succeeded in development, and investment risk was extremely high.

However, the situation has completely changed. With the world's strongest foreign competitors shut out, Chinese companies can monopolize the demand generated in their own 'blocked giant market.' The significant reduction in market development risk has removed the biggest obstacle to domestic companies' entry. In other words, U.S. export restrictions, though externally enforced, have ultimately spurred the rise of industry in China.

There are precedents for such a phenomenon in the past. During Napoleon's era, Britain prohibited the export of its own spinning machines, which were the most advanced in the world, to hostile France. As a result, France, which was most generously protected from competition with British spinning machines, saw the mechanization of its cotton spinning industry progress much faster than in other regions. Britain unintentionally ended up promoting the development of industry in France.

In the short term, the entry of Chinese companies into the DUV lithography machine market is very limited. Only a few Chinese-made machines are expected to be delivered by 2026, and only about 20 units by 2027. This does not immediately threaten ASML, which delivered 131 units in 2025 alone. However, in the long term, there is a possibility that two major losers, Europe and the United States, will emerge in the struggle for high-tech products between the U.S. and China.

As a result of being forced to comply with U.S. export rules, Europe will lose a part of the huge Chinese market. The United States, on the other hand, may have slowed China's technological pursuit in the short term, but objectively, it stimulated China's desire for independent development and accelerated the establishment of a complete technological system. If China breaks through the technological barrier in the future, China may thank President Trump. This is because President Trump's export restrictions precisely brought about the path of 'self-reliance' for China.