Korea Meteorological Administration repeatedly gets weather forecasts wrong, drawing severe criticism from major newspapers who call it a 'forecasters' qualification problem.'

This article was automatically translated from Japanese by AI. The original Japanese version is the authoritative source.
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Korea Meteorological Administration is repeatedly getting weather forecasts wrong and drawing public disfavor. The KMA had just introduced a supercomputer and even added analysis using AI. Korean newspapers severely criticized it as a 'forecasters' qualification problem.' The photo is of Seoul.

Korea Meteorological Administration is repeatedly getting weather forecasts wrong and drawing public disfavor. The KMA introduced a supercomputer costing hundreds of billions of won (100 billion won = approximately 11.1 billion yen) and had just added analysis using artificial intelligence (AI). Korean newspapers severely criticized it in a column, stating, 'It can only be attributed to the forecasters' qualification problem.' The Chosun Ilbo cited the weather forecast for July 18 as a concrete example. An acquaintance of the column's author received a short message stating 'Outdoor event cancelled.' On this day, the KMA had forecast up to 300 mm of heavy rain in the central region. Despite hoping it might not happen, they cancelled the event because it rained until dawn. However, after morning passed, the rain stopped, and the sun shone brightly at noon. They said they couldn't help but resent the KMA. During the Constitution Day (Korea's Constitution Memorial Day, July 17) holidays, not a few people suffered due to the KMA's incorrect forecasts. Forecast errors are so frequent that people wonder if precipitation forecasts by the KMA have ever been as inaccurate as they are recently. On many days, umbrellas brought out because of the rainy season forecast ended up being used as walking sticks. Specific figures for this have emerged. Upon analyzing the KMA's Seoul weather forecasts and actual precipitation since July, it was found that once every two days, there was an 'over-forecast,' where the maximum precipitation announced was more than 30% higher than the actual rainfall. Furthermore, days with incorrect forecasts, where the predicted precipitation range was exceeded, occurred at a rate of once every four days. Distrust in the KMA's forecasts has grown, and it has been a long time since 'weather exiles' emerged, people who consult overseas weather services such as AccuWeather, Windy.com, and 'Yr' from the Norwegian Meteorological Institute. Weather websites are flooded with comments condemning the KMA, such as 'Forecasts are fake news,' 'It seems like they say it will rain everywhere because they can't get it right,' and 'It's hard to be this wrong.' One elementary school student, whose family outing was cancelled due to a forecast of rain all day, wrote in their diary, 'The KMA is stupid,' because it didn't actually rain all day. The number of young people following YouTube channels that provide their own forecasts based on weather models from neighboring countries (such as Japan) instead of the KMA is also increasing. The KMA's frequent 'over-forecasting' is because criticism received when heavy rain strikes after they forecast little rain is far stronger than in the opposite case. However, far more people than imagined suffer losses due to 'over-forecasting.' If outings or events are cancelled, self-employed businesses related to dining out and tourism will inevitably experience a significant drop in customers. Not only self-employed individuals, but also agricultural workers harvesting crops, construction sites arranging labor, and golf courses facing a rush of reservation cancellations are greatly affected by weather forecasts. If rain is forecast, golf course sales drop to less than half. According to The Chosun Ilbo, the KMA recently commented that 'climate change has narrowed the width of the rainy season front, making precipitation forecasts even more difficult.' (Editor/Hinata)

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