On August 3, 2026, Taiwan media China Times published a commentary article stating that Japan and the U.S.'s 15-year effort to reduce rare earth dependence on China has stalled in terms of both quantity and cost, and China's advantage remains unshaken.

The author of the article is Mr. Zhang Wenji, representative of the Sino-American Forum. Mr. Zhang first stated that a major turning point in the rare earth issue was China's drastic reduction of export quotas in 2010. Following the collision incident off the Senkaku Islands in September of the same year, when an embargo against Japan was reported, Japan, which relied on China for 90% of its imports, reacted strongly, and the United States and the European Union (EU) also sided with Japan, forming a united front.

He pointed out that since then, Japan has positioned rare earths as a strategic resource vital to national survival and has pursued three measures: stockpiling, investing in overseas mines, and recycling. Regarding stockpiling, as of the end of 2025, the public and private sectors combined exceeded 11,000 tons, with core heavy rare earths reaching over 2,000 tons, and he calculated that this could support major industries for over half a year with normal consumption.

On the other hand, regarding overseas mines, although the supply agreement with Australia's Lynas, the largest producer outside China, was renewed in March 2026, he analyzed that it has not been as effective as publicized by the Japanese side. He argued that the company's 2025 production of dysprosium and terbium totaled only 36 tons, which, when compared to the scale of 14 tons per month of heavy rare earths exported from China to Japan in 2024, is less than three months' worth.

Furthermore, regarding the deep-sea mineral deposits off Minamitorishima, which are reported to contain reserves equivalent to 800 years' worth for Japan, Mr. Zhang views that commercialization will be more than 10 years away, and for reasons such as mining costs being 20 times higher than those of Chinese-produced rare earths, he holds a skeptical view.

Regarding recycling, the recovered amount in 2025 was 1,200 tons for light and heavy rare earths combined, which he pointed out is less than 6% of the annual consumption of approximately 20,000 tons of magnets. While the labor costs, logistics costs, and environmental processing fees for dismantling one air conditioner amount to approximately 200 Chinese yuan (approx. 4,800 yen), the value of the rare earths that can be extracted is less than 50 yuan (approx. 1,200 yen), and he also touched upon the profitability barrier.

Mr. Zhang pointed out that the scarcity of alternative measures is also true for the United States, which is working with allies to build supply chains, make domestic investments, and develop technology. As a symbolic topic, he cited the example that when China strengthened export controls on rare earths and other materials in October 2025, the next day in the U.S. market, all three major indices fell, and the day after that, President Trump and government officials showed willingness to reach an agreement with China. (Edited and translated by Kawashiri)