Chinese media outlet Guancha.cn published a commentary article on the 24th titled 'Japan's Shinkansen Export Dream Shatters.'

The article stated, "The Mumbai-Ahmedabad High-Speed Rail project, once anticipated as a symbol of 'New India,' still shows no sign of completion even after approximately 10 years. At the time, amid competition with China, Japan provided an ultra-low-interest loan of approximately 8 billion dollars, and it was expected to become a historic success story for the overseas expansion of Shinkansen technology. However, currently, the project has become a battleground over technological leadership between Japan and India."

It then referred to the fact that Hideki Makihara, former Minister of Justice, recently criticized the Indian side, stating that the stagnation of the project was "100% India's responsibility," while the Indian Ministry of External Affairs refuted it as "significantly different from the facts." It commented, "The rift behind what was a symbolic cooperation project for both countries has been brought to light."

The article explained, "The project was agreed upon in 2015, construction began in 2017, and it was scheduled to open in 2023. However, as of March 2024, the progress rate remains at approximately 42%. The background to the delay includes difficulties in land acquisition, as well as conflicts over technology. India adopted a European system for its signal system, excluding Japan's Shinkansen. Furthermore, it is attempting to introduce domestically produced rolling stock instead of Japanese-made ones."

It then commented, "India's aim is to acquire high-speed rail technology domestically while utilizing Japanese funds. However, the Shinkansen is an integrated system of rolling stock, tracks, and signals, and Japan's strengths are diminished if individual technologies are separated. From Japan's perspective, there is a concern that it will lose leadership in technological cooperation and become merely a 'fund provider.'"

On the other hand, "For India, high-speed rail is not only about economic development but also a symbol of 'New India.' While it has a vast railway network, aging infrastructure, delays, and accidents pose challenges, making high-speed rail development indispensable. However, land systems, circumstances specific to each state, and the 'Make in India' policy seeking technology transfer are complicating the project. India, while seeking cooperation with Japan, is also pursuing self-reliant development. This stance is a challenge not only for Japan but also for cooperation with foreign companies in general."

The article also argued, "The dream of Japan's high-speed rail (Shinkansen) expanding overseas has also shattered," and "While the Shinkansen was once a trump card of 'Made in Japan,' its current overseas deployment presents an awkward sight." It further stated, "The Indian project has not opened even after 10 years, the Vietnamese project was rejected by the National Assembly, the U.S. project stalled, and the Thai project has seen no progress since the signing of a memorandum of understanding. Almost all overseas projects have become a nightmare for Japanese engineers and diplomats."

It then pointed out, "Objectively speaking, the safety and punctuality of the Shinkansen are still world-class. The problem is not technology, but structural difficulties in the business model." First, regarding costs, it stated, "Due to high labor costs and complex procedures, Japan's proposed prices for overseas projects tend to be unrealistic. For the same amount, China could build two lines, and Europe 1.5 lines. In the price-sensitive international infrastructure market, Japan is losing on price first."

Next, it pointed out, "Japan insists on selling the entire railway system as a package." It stated, "This method succeeded precisely because it was in Japan, built on a foundation of a single operating company, a single railway standard, a national land acquisition and financing system, and a stable power supply and operation management system. However, the situation is completely different overseas."

Furthermore, it stated, "Competitive pressure from China is also a factor that Japan cannot ignore." It argued, "Shortly before then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe secured the Indian high-speed rail project in 2015, Japan and China jointly bid for Indonesia's Jakarta-Bandung high-speed rail, but China ultimately won the contract. This was one of the reasons why Japan showed strong enthusiasm for winning the Indian project at the time, as Japan needed a victory to make a comeback."

However, it argued, "More than 10 years have passed since then, and while China completed and began operating the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed rail in less than 8 years, Japan's Indian high-speed rail has yet to open. This contrast in success and failure may be the most realistic microcosm of the Japan-China competition in the global high-speed rail market."

The article presented the view that "Ultimately, Japan is trying to sell a closed system to overseas markets that are diverse, price-sensitive, and seek technological self-reliance, and this mismatch has been highlighted by the current conflict." It concluded, "The two dreams entrusted with grand expectations (of Japan and India) have ultimately resulted in mutually damaging outcomes amidst their respective one-sided desires." (Translation/Editing: Kitada)