On July 16, 2026, Singaporean media Lianhe Zaobao reported that the International Energy Agency (IEA), in a report on rare earths and critical minerals, warned that China's export restrictions could put a huge amount of downstream industrial production at risk.

The article cited a Bloomberg report and introduced the contents of the report. The report warned that if China fully implements rare earth export restriction measures, production worth $6.5 trillion (approximately 1,050 trillion yen) annually in downstream industries outside China could be at risk.

Furthermore, in response to such vulnerabilities, the report recommends that countries establish strategic reserves of 11 types of "high-risk" critical minerals through multilateral cooperation, stating that these reserves would require an initial procurement expenditure of approximately $9.2 billion (approximately 1.49 trillion yen), and while the annual net cost would amount to approximately $900 million (approximately 146 billion yen), the report points out that this is "insignificant" compared to the potential losses that supply disruptions could cause.

The article conveyed that IEA Executive Director Birol stated in a press release, "Vast economic value relies on a relatively limited number of critical minerals, and the supply chains for these minerals remain highly concentrated, making them extremely vulnerable," and expressed the view that while supply diversification might mean higher costs, in an era full of geopolitical uncertainty, it can be regarded as economic insurance against significant supply risks.

On the other hand, the report also evaluates that governments are beginning to play an active role in diversifying critical mineral supply chains, and it introduced the prediction that due to investments by the United States and Malaysia in rare earth refining projects, China's share of global rare earth refining supply has decreased from 90% to 85%, and if they operate as planned, it could decrease to 70% by 2035.

The article pointed out that despite ongoing efforts by various governments, overall, the geographical concentration of mineral supply chains has actually increased, particularly in the refining process. Indonesia holds the top spot globally in nickel refining, while China leads the world in refining other critical energy minerals, and these two countries alone account for more than three-quarters of the increase in global refined mineral supply. (Translation/Editing: Kawajiri)