Chinese media Caixin reported on the 14th that while China's officially announced unemployment rate is 5.2%, economists are pointing out that the "broad unemployment rate" is 10.2%. China's National Bureau of Statistics recently announced that the average national urban surveyed unemployment rate from January to May this year was 5.2% and that the employment situation was generally stable. However, according to the article, Li Daokui, Dean of the Institute of Chinese Economic Thought and Practice at Tsinghua University, pointed out at a symposium of the China Macroeconomy Forum (CMF) held on the 11th that what should be noted is the "broad unemployment rate." Li's research team, based on the National Bureau of Statistics' fundamental data, recalculated the unemployment rate, including laborers who had not found jobs for the past two years and were already excluded from official statistics. As a result, China's broad unemployment rate was estimated to be 10.2%, with approximately 24 million long-term unemployed, and about 13 million of them being young people aged 16-24. Li pointed out that the biggest problem in the current Chinese economy is not "K-shaped polarization" but rather the cooling of the economy as a whole. He stated, "The stagnation of the Chinese economy has already lasted for three years, and the 'upper line' alone cannot boost the entire economy."

Migrant workers from Guizhou
Furthermore, as another indicator to watch besides the "broad unemployment rate," he cited fixed asset investment. He pointed out that last year's fixed asset investment decreased by 3.8% year-on-year, and for January to May this year, the cumulative figure decreased by 4.1% year-on-year, and mentioned, "This is rare since the beginning of statistical records, and the magnitude of negative investment growth is unprecedented." He also pointed out, "While new growth engines for the Chinese economy have not yet been established, infrastructure investment and real estate investment, which have supported the economy for the past several decades, are gradually nearing the end of their roles." Li analyzed that compared to 3-5 years ago, the downward pressure that the real estate market exerts on the Chinese economy has clearly weakened, and currently, the biggest factor causing the stagnation of the Chinese economy is the overall reduction in investment by local governments. According to calculations by Li's research team, infrastructure investment and routine expenditures by local governments, which were the main drivers of large-scale infrastructure investment over the past 20 years, have on average accounted for about 41% of the gross domestic product (GDP) and were the biggest growth engine of the Chinese economy, significantly exceeding personal consumption. However, it is said that this ratio has now fallen to 35%. Furthermore, in some local governments, there are also movements to revoke tax incentives previously promised to companies or to collect taxes in advance. Li pointed out, "While the consumption and investment willingness of businesses and households is declining, local governments are using new borrowings to repay existing debts, thereby losing the power to boost the economy." He argues that China should moderately increase the debt level of the entire government, including the central government, and boost economic recovery through support for public welfare, promotion of consumption, and investment in new growth areas.

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