According to South Korean media on June 7, 2026, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) indicated a forecast that South Korea's potential growth rate will fall below 1.5% for the first time next year.

According to the article, in the latest data released by the OECD, South Korea's potential growth rate is expected to decline from 1.85% in 2025 to 1.66% in 2026 and 1.52% in 2027. Particularly, in the fourth quarter of 2027, it is projected to reach 1.46%, falling below 1.5% for the first time since statistics began.

Potential growth rate is an indicator that shows the economic growth rate achievable without causing inflation, reflecting the fundamental strength of the economy such as labor force, capital, and productivity. South Korea's potential growth rate has been continuously declining since peaking at 3.62% in 2012, falling below 3% in 2016 and also below 2% last year.

Meanwhile, this month, the OECD significantly raised South Korea's real GDP growth rate forecast for this year from the previous 1.7% to 2.6%. The strong performance of IT exports, particularly semiconductors, is believed to be the background for this. The article conveyed an analysis stating that "apart from the short-term economic recovery, the structural weakening of growth potential due to a declining birthrate, an aging population, and lower productivity continues."

Regarding this, South Korean netizens commented, "It's simply following in Japan's footsteps," "This is the result of neglecting the declining birthrate," "It's impossible to demand a growth rate in a society where young people cannot marry or have children," "The birthrate won't rise unless housing prices are somehow addressed," and "I think it will be even lower than the OECD's prediction," among other similar opinions.

In addition, comments such as "Even so, politicians are only focused on approval rating battles," "If it weren't for semiconductors, it would have been more serious," "If the population decreases, it's natural for the growth rate to decline," and "Looking at the current South Korean economy, it's not surprising" were also seen.