Singapore media outlet Lianhe Zaobao reported on the 3rd that ride-hailing service drivers and delivery personnel in China have reached a saturation point, indicating a limit to their capacity as a safety net for the middle-aged unemployed.

In China, it is even said that 'if you lose your job at 35, you won't find another.' According to the article, ride-hailing service drivers, food delivery personnel, and courier delivery personnel have served as a safety net for such middle-aged unemployed individuals. However, due to the continuous influx of workers seeking employment in these industries, competition has intensified, and the number of orders and income appear to be on a declining trend.

On May 25, the Transportation Bureau of Shenzhen City, Guangdong Province, issued a warning to those considering new entry into the city's ride-hailing service market, stating that it is already saturated. They advised individuals to thoroughly conduct market research, objectively evaluate profitability, and make investment and employment decisions rationally and cautiously. At the same time, it also pointed out risks such as losses due to deteriorating management of operating companies and contractual disputes caused by the discrepancy between advertisements promising high income and actual income.

The saturation of the ride-hailing service market is not limited to Shenzhen City. As of the end of 2025, the number of drivers who have obtained ride-hailing service qualification certificates in China reached approximately 7.483 million, over 390 ride-hailing service platforms have obtained operating licenses, and the number of registered vehicles exceeds 3.2 million. Since 2024, similar warnings have been issued in various places such as Chongqing City, Zhuhai City, Dali City, and Hefei City, and the Chongqing Municipal Transportation Commission pointed out in its Q1 2025 risk report that 'the supply capacity of ride-hailing service vehicles significantly exceeds actual demand.'

Furthermore, a report from Zhuhai City states that even if a full-time driver works 10 hours a day, the average daily revenue remains around 300 yuan (approximately 7,000 yen), and after deducting necessary expenses, the actual monthly income is approximately 4,000 yuan (approximately 95,000 yen), which is said to be significantly lower than the average monthly salary of employees at local private companies.

In China, similar to ride-hailing services, the number of food delivery personnel also surged. In 2025, JD.com, Taobao Flash Sale, and Meituan engaged in fierce competition for market share by investing enormous subsidies, recruiting a large number of delivery personnel with advertisements such as 'monthly income over 10,000 yuan (approximately 230,000 yen)' and 'no experience welcome.' As a result, over 8 million new delivery personnel flowed into the industry, and the number of registered delivery personnel temporarily reached nearly 20 million. However, once the subsidy competition subsided, overstaffing became apparent. There are also reports that the number of daily orders dropped from around 40 to about 30.

According to estimates by Swiss financial giant UBS, as of February this year, the daily order volume for the three major companies was approximately 110 million. Assuming one delivery person delivers 30-40 orders per day, the number of required delivery personnel would be approximately 4 million, leaving about 16 million as surplus labor. The food delivery industry, which once served as a safety net for flexible work, has seen an increase in low incomes and excessive competition as migrant workers, unemployed individuals, and those who failed in business entered the market one after another due to lack of information. This situation is also observed in the courier industry, where handling volumes have significantly increased while unit prices have fallen, leading to increased burden and decreased income for workers.

The article points out that 'it is no coincidence that these industries fell into excessive competition almost simultaneously.' Ride-hailing services, food delivery, and courier services all have low barriers to entry, high flexibility in working hours, and easy access to cash income, making them a safety net for many unemployed individuals. A survey published last year showed that 77% of ride-hailing drivers had switched to this industry after losing their jobs. Furthermore, many rural workers have flowed into the food delivery industry, and according to a survey by the International Labour Organization (ILO), over 70% of delivery personnel on major Chinese delivery platforms were from rural areas.

The article points out that the background to this situation is the increasingly severe employment environment due to the slowdown in China's economic growth. (Translation and Editing/Kitada)