At the U.S.-China summit in May, which the world watched closely, President Xi Jinping's 'great power' consciousness was prominent, while President Trump seemed to be somewhat on the defensive.

Even Citing the 'Thucydides Trap'

At this summit, the stance of both the U.S. and China to create an atmosphere of reconciliation became evident. While Chairman Xi stated that 'the U.S. and China should be partners, not rivals,' President Trump responded by saying, 'The relationship between the two countries will be better than ever before.'

According to the Chinese side's announcement, both leaders agreed to build a 'constructive strategic stability relationship.' While it is not clear what a 'constructive strategic stability relationship' means, one can sense Chairman Xi's intention for China, as a great power equal to the U.S., to lead the world together.

This great power consciousness of Chairman Xi permeated throughout the entire summit. During the first day's meeting with President Trump, the word 'great power' repeatedly came out of Chairman Xi's mouth. It was surprising that he even cited the political concept of the 'Thucydides Trap,' used by an American political scientist, to imply that China is a great power. The 'Thucydides Trap' is a hypothesis that the risk of war increases when an emerging power rises and threatens the status of an existing great power, but Chairman Xi likely intended to say that the U.S. and China should cooperate without falling into this trap.

Not a Warning, but a 'Threat' to the U.S.?

Chairman Xi's great power consciousness and confidence were clearly evident in his remarks regarding the Taiwan issue. At the summit, Chairman Xi immediately brought up the Taiwan issue, emphasizing, 'If it cannot be handled appropriately, both sides will clash and drive both countries into a very dangerous state.'

Many media outlets reported Chairman Xi's remarks as a strong warning to the U.S., but experts on Chinese affairs explain, 'China has never before pressed the U.S. so explicitly on the Taiwan issue in an official setting; this is closer to a 'threat' than a warning.'

After the first day of the summit, when both leaders visited the Temple of Heaven Park, a UNESCO World Heritage site in Beijing, President Trump remained silent when asked if he had discussed Taiwan. While Mr. Trump usually responds immediately to reporters' questions and speaks eloquently, an American journalist covering the White House said, 'Trump's usual flamboyant style fell flat.'

On his way back from China, the President acknowledged that he had discussed the Taiwan issue, and revealed that while Chairman Xi had asked about the U.S. response if China were to attack Taiwan, he himself did not say anything.

Some Views Suggest 'It Proceeded at China's Pace'

Not only on the Taiwan issue, but many also believe that President Trump's words and actions at this summit were less flamboyant and more reserved than usual. A New York Times reporter recalled, 'While President Trump was conciliatory and reserved, Chairman Xi maintained a dignified demeanor.'

Experts on U.S.-China relations analyze that 'Chairman Xi seized the initiative with his strong remarks on Taiwan at the summit, and generally, it proceeded at Xi's pace.' In the first place, prior to this summit, the view that 'China would have the upper hand' was widespread among U.S. media. This was because, with low approval ratings and midterm elections in November, the Trump administration desired immediate tangible benefits, whereas the Xi administration was not pressed to rush for results and was seen to have more time.

Regarding the situation in Iran, one of the important agenda items, China is said to have agreed with the U.S. on the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and opposition to Iran's nuclear possession, but these are China's established policies and not concessions. Furthermore, President Trump also stated that Chairman Xi promised not to provide military equipment to Iran, but China has denied military support to Iran in the past, so this is not new.

Outcomes Expected from Prior Discussions

Regarding President Trump's assertion that he 'reached a wonderful trade agreement' and appealed that there were significant achievements, some view it as 'not that much of an achievement compared to the large-scale agreement with China during the first Trump administration' (U.S. CNN commentator).

A clear example of this is President Trump's boast about the purchase of Boeing aircraft. According to the President, China agreed to purchase 200 aircraft, but prior reports indicated an order of approximately 500 aircraft, and it also pales in comparison to the deal for 300 Boeing aircraft during Trump's visit to China in 2017.

Although China is said to have promised to purchase U.S.-produced soybeans, crude oil, and liquefied natural gas (LNG), experts on U.S.-China relations comment, 'For China, it was merely using easily dispensable bargaining chips, and it's hard to say that Chairman Xi made significant concessions.'

Many of the agreements reached between the U.S. and China this time in economic and trade aspects were expected from the seven rounds of ministerial-level trade talks held beforehand, and there are also observations that there were no novel achievements that President Trump could boast about. Attention will now focus on what moves both sides will make towards the next U.S.-China summit scheduled for September.

■筆者プロフィール：山崎真二

山形大客員教授（元教授）、時事総合研究所客員研究員、元時事通信社外信部長、リマ（ペルー）特派員、ニューデリー支局長、ニューヨーク支局長。