France's international broadcaster Radio France Internationale (RFI) published on the 20th a column article titled "Japan-China 'Mutual Collapse' Structure as Seen from a 50% Decrease in Chinese Tourists Visiting Japan in the First Half of the Year."

According to statistics released by the Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO) on July 15, the number of foreign visitors to Japan in June was 3,148,600, a 6.8% decrease from the same month last year. Against the backdrop of worsening Japan-China relations, Chinese visitors saw a sharp decline of 57.3%. The cumulative number of foreign visitors to Japan in the first half of 2026 (January-June) was 21,084,800, a 2.0% decrease from the same period last year. Of these, Chinese visitors numbered 2,058,200, a significant decrease of 56.4%.

The article explained that Japan-China relations became significantly strained after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi made remarks about a "Taiwan contingency" in November last year, and the number of travelers from China to Japan sharply declined after the Chinese government urged its citizens to avoid traveling to Japan. It argued, "As a result, Japan's tourism industry suffered a major blow, but at the same time, the Chinese side is also incurring losses."

Furthermore, regarding Japan, it explained, "The consumption by foreign visitors to Japan in 2024 reached a record high of 8,139.5 billion yen, of which consumption by Chinese visitors was 1,733.5 billion yen, accounting for 21.3% of the total, making it the highest by country/region. Additionally, Chinese consumption from April to June 2025 was 516.0 billion yen, but it decreased by about 50% to 259.2 billion yen in the same period of 2026." According to an estimation by Takahide Kiuchi, an economist at Nomura Research Institute, if the number of Chinese visitors to Japan decreases to the same extent as in 2012, it could lower Japan's GDP (Gross Domestic Product) by approximately 0.29 percentage points.

On the other hand, it also pointed out, "It's not that the Chinese side is not incurring losses." It mentioned that since November 15 last year, nearly 500,000 airline tickets to Japan have been cancelled by Chinese airlines, in December last year, Chinese airlines suspended over 900 flights on Japan routes, with about 16-20% of originally planned flights being canceled, and in February this year, all flights on 49 Japan-China routes were suspended, leading to about half of the flights from China to Japan being cancelled. It stated that airlines incurred significant economic losses by offering "free refunds."

It also stated that "losses extended beyond refund costs to include idle crew and equipment, and a sharp decline in route revenue," and "airlines' cash flow was squeezed, they lost sales from advance tickets, and also had to bear compensation for refund fees and processing costs. It was reported that in the industry, the estimated loss from refunding approximately 500,000 airline tickets amounts to several billion yuan (over several tens of billions of yen)."

It then pointed out, "Japan routes have historically been one of the highly profitable international short-haul routes for Chinese airlines. Therefore, this large-scale suspension had a more severe impact on airline profits than the reduction of some domestic flights." "In fact, China's three major airlines are expected to post a combined net loss of up to approximately 9 billion yuan (about 215 billion yen) in the first half of 2026. While the factors behind the deficit are not solely due to Japan routes, the slump in international demand and the significant reduction in Japan routes are considered contributing factors to the deteriorating performance."

Furthermore, it also explained that "just as the number of Chinese visitors to Japan has drastically decreased, the number of Japanese visitors to China has also significantly declined." It introduced that a representative for China travel at a major Japanese travel agency revealed, "The number of Japanese travelers heading to China has decreased by 90%. This might be due to concerns about local security."

The article pointed out, "The sharp decline in people-to-people exchanges between the two countries has also greatly diminished opportunities to deepen mutual understanding. If neighboring countries deepen their confrontation, it could ultimately lead to a 'mutual collapse' situation where both sides suffer losses. Conflicts over politics and ideology should not be artificially allowed to spill over into the economic sphere. Such actions will ultimately only lead to losses for both sides." It recalled that when Japan-China relations cooled down due to the Senkaku Islands issue in 2012, then Liberal Democratic Party Vice President Masahiko Komura described the situation as becoming a "tactical mutual loss relationship" rather than a "strategic mutually beneficial relationship," and argued, "The current Japan-China relations are precisely in a state of 'tactical mutual loss'." (Translation/Editing by Kitada)